3 key elements to discuss in apparel automation and it’s possible affects on labor

Here are 3 key elements to discuss in apparel automation and it’s possible affects on labor

First, what is the lifetime clothing consumption of a person and how fast is the world's population growing? It’s important to understand the scale of the problem that we have in apparel. No one is wearing less, and with each new person entering the world, they are going to consume some “lifetime average” of clothing. Today circular business models have not taken hold and second hand is just in its infancy. This means every piece of clothing that someone needs will have to be cut, sewn and trimmed new…new materials, new chemicals, new garment manufacturing and new CO2 footprint. However, that is only true if that person pre-purchased all their clothing or ordered it on-demand. Instead in the current model, we have to make that persons clothes plus 40% more because no company really knows how much of that item will be consumed. Manufacturing this way is ultimately unsustainable. Even those people who agree with this problem struggle with the reality of circular or second hand clothes. The chase for cheaper clothing around the world has made clothing a deflationary good and it is almost always cheaper to buy something new than to maintain it and give it a second life. All of this New Consumption and New Production creates jobs. If second hand significantly grows, jobs will disappear. If you move to on-demand, 40% of jobs will also disappear. 

Second, is the world gaining or losing seamstresses? And what is a manufacturers ability to keep up with the growing population and consumption trends? According to today’s manufacturers there are less seamstresses available today then in the past. While they have some bias for this answer, generally the reasons come down to, intracountry migration from rural areas (where the factories are) to the cities (where higher paying jobs and young people can meet), country to country migration that has halted the flow of low cost labor to stable regions where manufacturing is taking place, and alternative jobs that offer better working conditions and higher pay. Would you rather work in an Apple store or a shoe factory?  As of this year 35% of chinese millenials are leaving the factory and not returning after the chinese new year to find service related jobs. I have observed mostly loss. I know of regions of the world that are opening up or are trying to open up to bring garment manufacturers in so as to provide employment to their citizens, however, on average, there are less now than there was 10, 20 or 30 years ago. Globalization has happened. We have gone as far and wide as we can go. While some countries like Myanmar are just opening up and countries like Kenya are restablishing the textile industry they lost in the 80’s and 90’s, there aren’t huge gains to be found. Labor is finite. In a growingly rich world, cheap labor even more so. 

Third, do today’s workers have alternatives to garment manufacturing that make them the same or more? While manufacturing has always been the ladder to which developing nations have provided jobs and enable citizens to work their way to prosperity, the service industry is now reaching farther down the ladder than at any time in history.   In Mauritius prior to 2005, 100,000 workers out of 1M were in textile production. When the quota system disappeared in 2005, China absorbed the world’s apparel manufacturing and Mauritius lost 55,000 workers almost overnight. However, the majority of the workers were picked up rapidly by the hospitality industry providing service to the booming tourism business. Older workers were at the most risk and the government had to step in to provide care/service/support for those workers who were too old to transition to a new career.  But it raises the question, how long were those hospitality jobs there before the quota collapse? 

Robotics still has a long way to go in the automation of apparel manufacturing. That said the most basic apparel will be the first to go like T-shirts, jeans, and dress shirts.  We shouldn’t wait for that to happen and then figure out next steps. While everyone is argueing over who should be responsible for upskilling the workers, I like the Fair Trade model. Factories have to teach their workers new skills while they are at the factory whether it is cutting hair or book keeping and each year that factory needs to improve by 10% or the brand holds them accountable.